Unrealistic optimism refers to when someone believes that good things are going to happen to them or others even if the chances of those good things happening are very low. This can make people take risks and ignore potential dangers. According to Davidson and Prkachin (1997), unrealistic optimism can affect a person’s behavior. Shepperd et al. (2013) conducted a review of research on unrealistic optimism which suggested that there are four types of unrealistic optimism (individual absolute, individual comparative, group absolute, group comparative) Research on the application of unrealistic optimism indicates that it impacts a person’s decision-making processes (Sheppard et al., 2013; Sheppard et al., 2015). In the first paper on the topic, Weinstein (1980) found that people tend to have a bias towards positive outcomes, even when they are unlikely to occur.
Unrealistic optimism has been extensively studied in the field of psychology, and researchers have identified a number of factors that contribute to this bias. For example, people may engage in wishful thinking, where they focus on positive outcomes while ignoring potential risks or negative information (Shepperd et al., 2015). Other things that may contribute to unrealistic optimism include the desire to seem better than one is, social comparison, and various cognitive biases (Shepperd et al., 2013). It is important to be aware of this bias to avoid making unwise decisions (Shepperd et al., 2015).
References
Davidson, K., & Prkachin, K. (1997). Optimism and unrealistic optimism have an interacting impact on health-promoting behavior and knowledge changes. Personality and social psychology bulletin, 23(6), 617-625.
Shepperd, J. A., Klein, W. M., Waters, E. A., & Weinstein, N. D. (2013). Taking stock of unrealistic optimism. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(4), 395-411.
Shepperd, J. A., Waters, E., Weinstein, N. D., & Klein, W. M. (2015). A Primer on Unrealistic Optimism. Current directions in psychological science, 24(3), 232–237. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568341
Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
