The hot hand fallacy is a belief that comes from basketball. It is when people think that if a player makes two or three shots in a row, they are more likely to make another shot compared to if they had missed two or three shots instead (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985). Some studies support the idea, while others do not show a clear answer (Avugos et al., 2013; Iso-Ahola & Dotson, 2014).
There have been debates about the reality of the “hot hand” because it is tough to find solid evidence. Some say that maybe the statistical tests used aren’t strong enough to detect the hot hand, assuming it exists. Another reason could be that coaches from the opposing team may change their strategy when they notice a player is on a streak. This could then affect the player’s chances of making more shots.
Avugos, S., Köppen, J., Czienskowski, U., Raab, M., & Bar- Eli, M. (2013). The ‘hot hand’ reconsidered: A meta-analytic approach. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 14, 21 27.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295 314.
Iso-Ahola, S. E., & Dotson, C. O. (2014). Psychological momentum: Why success breeds success. Review of General Psychology, 18, 19 33.
